MLB Prediction · 2026-06-21

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees: Prediction, Odds & Best Bet

SharpCapper's AI best bet: Cincinnati Reds moneyline (-104) — confidence 8/10/10, MEDIUM risk.

The Edge

A Cy Young contender at -104 is a market error — Burns is being priced like a coin-flip against a rookie making his second career start in a game the Yankees' depleted, slumping offense has no business winning.

Key Factors

Burns is 8-1 with a 2.01 ERA — Cy Young-level numbers that create a strong implied win probability far above what -104 reflects.
Rodriguez is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP over just 13.0 innings this season — a rookie being thrown to the wolves in a must-win game-3 spot.
The Yankees are 10-6 since losing Aaron Judge to a fractured rib and went 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position in Saturday's loss, stranding 10 runners.
In Burns' last eight starts, the combined score has failed to reach nine runs five times — and the Under has cashed in five of the last seven Reds-Yankees matchups.
The Reds are 10-4 ATS in Burns' starts
, and the market is pricing New York as the favorite purely on home-field against a below-.500 road team while ignoring the historic starter mismatch.

Learn the strategy

AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only — not betting advice. 21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER.